The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Chargers (+5.5, 34%) vs Texans
The Houston Texans had an easy win over the Los Angeles Chargers, though the adjusted scores pull back a lot from the 44-22 final. It’s still a comfortable advantage for the Texans by the adjusted scores, at roughly 25-17, but not the blowout on the scoreboard.
The Texans’ 43% offensive success rate (excluding garbage time, i.e. >99% win probability) was more mediocre than their yardage and EPA efficiencies, both ending up above the 90th percentile.
The Texans converted eight of 14 third downs for +13.3 EPA, without needing to attempt a fourth-down conversion. The Chargers were only five for 17 on third down, though their two fourth-down conversions helped keep their late-down EPA positive.
The Texans averaged 10.0 yards per dropback, more than double the Chargers’ 4.7. That’s a huge passing performance against a Chargers pass defense that entered the week fourth in my adjusted EPA efficiency.
Neither offense got much value on the ground. The Chargers averaged a respectable 4.5 yards per designed run, but averaged -0.30 EPA per. The Texans were at -0.13, with their passing game carrying the offense to +0.28.
C.J. Stroud’s interception targeting Kayshon Boutte cost the Texans 6.0 expected points, but a 63-yard touchdown to Tank Dell on their next possession was massive at +11.9% win probability. Boutte’s 63-yard touchdown came in the fourth quarter (+6.3 EPA), with the Texans already up 31-9 and into garbage time.
Charlie Kolar led the Chargers’ skill players with +3.7 total EPA, catching all three targets for 31 yards. Quentin Johnston had a 58-yard touchdown, but that was his only catch on four targets.
The Chargers can’t run the ball with any effectiveness, as Kimani Vidal lost 2.8 expected points on seven carries for 30 yards, Omarion Hampton wasn’t much better by EPA (-3.5), despite getting 60 yards on 13 carries, and Keaton Mitchell lost 3.9 expected points on seven carries for 33 yards.
Boutte exploded in this game, catching four of five targets for 125 yards and two touchdowns (+6.3 EPA), with his long touchdown offsetting a costly targeted interception. Nico Collins was nearly as valuable (+5.9), catching all four targets for 55 yards and a touchdown.
Dell added 105 yards and a touchdown on four catches, though it took nine targets to get there (+3.8 EPA). There was a ton of receiving production to go around, with Xavier Hutchinson adding another score and +4.0 EPA.
Stroud finished at +0.53 EPA per play on 41 play involvements, with +27.6 Pass EPA, which excludes turnovers and sacks. Justin Herbert was negative (-0.11 EPA per play), with eight sacks and an interception costing 12.1 expected points overall.
The 3-5 Texans’ chance to win the AFC South was largely unchanged with the result at 11%, but the combination of Sunday results boosted their playoff qualification chance to 39% from 31% before games kicked off.
