The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Panthers (+3, 40%) vs Broncos
The Denver Broncos move to 7-2 with a 26-21 win over the Carolina Panthers, but there wasn’t that much separation in the game. My adjusted scores have it almost even, at 24-23 for the Broncos. Carolina was the more efficient offense (+0.13 EPA per play to +0.04), only to lose two of the game’s most consequential plays and get buried by flags.
The Broncos netted +13.9 EPA from special teams and penalties, with +6.4 coming from the penalty side. Those are huge advantages in unstable metrics for a game this close.
The Panthers kept themselves alive by converting all three fourth-down tries (+9.6 EPA), more than offsetting a poor third-down performance. Denver was much better on third down, converting six of 10, and got another two late-down first downs via defensive penalties.
The difference on offensive plays was on the ground: the Panthers were roughly neutral, while the Broncos’ designed runs lost 0.17 expected points per play. This wasn’t a case of the Broncos imposing themselves and the Panthers hanging around with a few lucky completions.
The strangest play was the tipped end-zone interception credited to the Broncos’ Devon Key. Bryce Young’s throw to Tommy Tremble was initially ruled incomplete, then reversed after the Broncos challenged. That one play cost the Panthers 7.0 expected points and 25.7% win probability. Young still had a chance to win it late, before Nik Bonitto’s strip-sack with 1:24 left (-42.5% win probability), leaving one needed Broncos first down to end the game.
Darren Waller caught eight of 10 targets for 90 yards and a touchdown, while John Metchie III led the Panthers in receiving EPA (+7.1) on only two targets.
Pat Bryant was the Broncos’ most valuable receiver (+5.5 EPA), with Troy Franklin adding +3.4. The running backs didn’t give Bo Nix a ton of help, with Jonah Coleman emerging as the lead back in the last couple weeks.
Both Young and Nix had relatively high usage (46 and 50 play involvements) and pass EPA (+21.8 and +22.7). But Young’s overall efficiency was severely hurt with big negatives.
The Broncos maintain the highest AFC West winning chance in prediction markets at 54%.
