Week 9 NFL Power Rankings

Eagles are flying up the rankings, but the Bills are still locked in at No. 1

You notice that some of the rankings shifts and movements in power rating don’t correspond exactly with intuition based solely on Week 6 results. The numbers still use some 2022 data, and prior weeks are having their effect sizes decayed, which can cause slight adjustments that look big. When lots of teams are bunched up in the middle and bottom of the NFL, even a marginal change in power rating can move a team 3-6 spots.

* The detailed information for power rankings are on the paid subscriber Google sheet (along with other site metrics). You can find previous Power Rankings write-ups on the landing page.

WHAT WE’VE LEARNED IN 2023

First let’s look at the team offensive and defensive efficiencies so far in 2023, using my adjusted-score methodology to measure performance, and factoring in strength of schedule.

Despite their W-L records fluctuating in recent weeks, my numbers have the underlying fundamentals for the Bills and 49ers relatively unchanged. The projections for both defenses have gotten worse based on recent play, but the offenses have still been good, though the 49ers have flipped from turnover avoidance luck to having things go against them.

The Dolphins offense has taken a hit the last few weeks, especially their rushing efficiency projection. They’ve gone from running the ball at a rate of EPA per play that would have ranked as a top-10 passing attack a few weeks ago to losing substantial EPA value running against the Eagles and Patriots the last two weeks.

The Eagles make one of the bigger relative jumps, as Jalen Hurts has returned to his MVP-adjacent form from the 2022 season, totaling +34.9 EPA the last two weeks, versus +25.4 EPA combined in the previous six weeks. We’ll see how his injured knee affects play going forward, if at all.

The Bengals and Jaguars are both on the cusp of entering the second tier for 2023 performance, which would put them in the conversation for a Super Bowl run in the playoffs. I boosted the Bengals numbers for early season weeks when Joe Burrow was clearly hampered by his calf injury, but I still want to see another couple strong offenses performance before assuming what we saw against the 49ers will be the norm going forward.

The Chiefs had the biggest drop in offensive efficiency rating, now on par with the Lions and Ravens with what they’ve done so far in 2023 on a schedule adjusted basis. It especially didn’t help to have the worst offensive performance of the Patrick Mahomes era while facing a Broncos defense that ranks at the bottom of opposing offensive efficiency allowed.

THE 2023 POWER RANKINGS AND RATINGS

Below visualizes the NFL ranked by what I’m calling “Power Rating”, or the estimates of each team’s point differential playing a league-average opponent on a neutral field.