The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2022-2026 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Vikings (+3, 37%) vs Bills
The Buffalo Bills (7-1) beat the Minnesota Vikings (6-2) 23-6, and the adjusted scores see it as just as lopsided, with the Bills ahead by about two touchdowns. The Bills’ 39.7% offensive success rate was below their 2026 average of 48.2% (NFL average 43.8%), but the Vikings were at only 23.8%, the second-lowest of any team in a game this season, ahead of only their own Week 3 game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Vikings defense, mostly, did their job, but the offense, once again, held them back
The Bills never trailed. Their win probability bottomed out at 49.8% in the first quarter after Josh Allen’s third-and-23 interception was returned to the Minnesota 47, but the Bills got the ball right back on the next play.
The Vikings lost the turnover battle by -10.4 EPA (three giveaways to one) but got special teams (+4.0 EPA) and penalties (+5.1) advantages by a combined +9.0 EPA, with the Bills flagged eight times for 62 yards, including back-to-back false starts on fourth down late in the third quarter, the first with the field goal unit out at the Minnesota 36, that pushed them into a punt.
The Vikings went 0-for-8 on third down and 0-for-2 on fourth down, losing 16.2 expected points on those plays. Their only extension came on a Terrel Bernard pass interference penalty on third-and-4 early in the third quarter (+2.1 EPA), and Wentz threw an interception to Dorian Williams on the very next snap. The Vikings are only the second team this season (New York Jets at Chicago Bears Week 4) to finish a game without any non-penalty late-down conversions.
