Week 9 MNF Chiefs-Buccaneers: Advanced Review

The Chiefs win in overtime, with the focus on Todd Bowles' decision to not try and end the game in regulation

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

KC (-9) vs TB

The Kansas City Chiefs needed to go all the way to overtime to seal the deal, but the adjusted scores didn’t see this as a toss-up contest. Justifiably, much of the talk post-game will be about the decision by Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ head coach Todd Bowles to kick the XP on a late touchdown with 27 seconds remaining, tying the game, rather than attempting to win in overtime.