The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2022-2026 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Falcons vs Bengals (-3, 62%) in Madrid
The Cincinnati Bengals won their fourth straight game in Madrid, and the adjusted scores agree they were the better team, just not by the full 17-point margin (29-22 adjusted, a 7-point differential). The Atlanta Falcons scored a touchdown on their opening drive, and then the Bengals rattled off 24 straight points, scoring on all four of their first-half possessions.
The Bengals were the more successful offense on a play-by-play basis (56.5% to 44.4%), and they leaned on the pass, at 13.4% over expectation, while the Falcons were right at expectation (+0.2%). Most of the gap between the actual and adjusted margins comes from the higher-variance buckets: the only turnover of the game (+5.5 EPA for the Bengals) and a big edge on special teams and penalties.
The Bengals netted +9.7 EPA on special teams and penalties, split almost evenly between the two (+4.9 and +4.8). Nick Folk’s 38-yard miss wide left early in the fourth quarter, with the Falcons down 31-17, was the costliest kick (-3.8 EPA), while McPherson made both of his field goals (+2.3), including the 57-yarder. Khalil Herbert got some of it back for Atlanta on kick returns (+3.0).
The Falcons were flagged 11 times for 78 yards, and their offense lost 5.2 expected points to flags alone. Two offensive holding calls wiped out a Penix scramble to the CIN 1 in the first quarter and a 19-yard Kyle Pitts catch late in the second.
Cincinnati’s lowest win probability was 43.1% after the Falcons’ opening touchdown, and the Bengals hit 99% with 7:51 left in the fourth quarter, so only the final 7:51 falls into official garbage time and out of the success rates in the table above.
Late downs were a wash, with both teams efficient. The Falcons went 5-for-10 on third down (+6.9 EPA) and got another first down on a DJ Turner II pass interference on 3rd-and-6 (+2.6), while the Bengals went 6-for-10 (+6.7). Neither team went for it on fourth down.
