Week 9 Late Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Rams-Saints, Raiders-Jaguars and Bills-Chiefs

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LA (-14) vs NO

An expected and delivered smackdown from the Los Angeles Rams to the New Orleans Saints. The Rams almost hit an ultra-elite 60% in offensive success rate, consistently posting big gains on dropbacks and in the ground game. The Rams enjoyed a strong turnover advantage (+2 differential, +9.2 EPA) and were significantly more successful on late downs, ultimately converting nine of the 14 times they went to third down, versus 2-of-9 for the Saints (plus 0-2 on fourth downs).