Week 9 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Falcons-Cowboys, Ravens-Broncos, Bills-Dolphins, Panthers-Saints, Bengals-Raiders, Browns-Chargers, Giants-Commanders and Titans-Patriots

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ATL (-3) vs DAL

It’s not all over for the Dallas Cowboys, but it’s almost the end with another loss dropping them to 3-5 on the season. The Atlanta Falcons relative success on late downs (third & fourth) drove the result.

But when I say relative success, I really mean relatively better at not being awful. The Cowboys lost 6.9 expected points on third downs (3-of-13), and another 6.6 lost on fourth, including a horrendous-looking fake punt failure. The Falcons were similarly bad at third-down conversions, but went 2-for-2 on fourth downs, gaining a total of 8.9 expected points, including +5.4 EPA on a single 4th & 3 score from 36 yards out.

Adding injury to insult, the Cowboys lost Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb during the game, though Lamb was able to return. We’ll have more information on their statuses in the coming week, with a huge game at home against the Philadelphia Eagles next on the docket.

The two offenses were inverse images of each other, with the Cowboys outperforming on the ground and underperforming on dropbacks, and the Falcons the opposite. Due to the fundamental difference in efficiencies between rushing and passing, you get better overall production with the Falcons’ mix. While the Falcons were successful passing, they generally leaned into the run, calling more designed runs than dropbacks, while the Cowboys passed more than 75% of plays.

Kirk Cousins posted great efficiency, despite losing 4.4 expected points on a strip-sack fumble. Outside of that mistake, he posted lots of valuable plays, and didn’t make mistakes. These are the types of games the Falcons were hoping for when they guaranteed Cousins $100 million in the offseason.

The passing game just wasn’t working for Prescott in this game, losing EPA on the day, despite not turning the ball over. As of the end of the early window, Prescott ranks 23rd in EPA per play among the 32 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks this season.

BAL (-8) vs DEN