Week 9 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence on the rise, Purdy continues to fall, and Will Levis enters the fray

For those of you looking for the Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE) numbers, it might be a week (or two) before I have the data to produce them. I’m figuring it all out now and appreciate the patience. I am producing a slimmed down version that I’m calling Luck-Adjusted Efficiency.

You can find all the previous weeks’ versions of the Bayesian Quarterback Rankings here.

COMPARING GRADES AND EFFICIENCY

PFF grades aren’t part of the analysis, but I find it helpful to make not of how they align with EPA per play, as many contextual elements of quarterback play (drops, interception-worthy throws, easier throws that become big gains, etc) are part of the grading methodology, but aren’t accounted for in EPA. At the same time, I think EPA does a vastly superior job of weighing what is and isn’t important in points-based results.

There’s the perception that Brock Purdy has been poor for the last few games, but it was really one bad game in Cleveland against a tough Browns defense, then two good-not-great efficiency performances the last two weeks. Purdy has been able to maintain his efficiency lead by EPA per play, but PFF grading is still highly skeptical that Purdy has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year (16th ranking of 32 quarterbacks with 120 dropbacks).

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa are the only quarterbacks combining outstanding EPA-based efficiency and PFF grading, giving us additional confidence that they’ve really been as good as the numbers say this season. Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff and, to a lesser extent, Trevor Lawrence look elite by PFF grading (ranked 4th, 5th and 7th, respectively), but outside of the top-8 in EPA efficiency, and clearly in a different tier than the top-4 quarterbacks by that metric.

Looking at potential quarterback benchings, Desmond Ridder was replaced in the second half of Week 8, and has been the worst starting quarterback by PFF grading so far this year. His EPA efficiency is relatively better, but still in the bottom-7. Might there be a move away from Jimmy Garoppolo after the firings of Josh McDaniel and Dave Ziegler in Las Vagas? It’s certainly possible after a disastrous passing performance in Detroit with the world watching Monday Night Football, but Garoppolo’s season-long efficiency and grading have merely been below average, not horrendous this year.

WEEK 9 PROJECTED EFFICIENCY

These results are the ranking for the go-forward projections of quarterback efficiency this season. I also included the EPA per play rankings for each quarterback over the last five seasons (minimum 250 dropbacks in previous years, 100 in 2023) so you can see the evidence going into the projections.

Older data is decayed over time, so the 2023 EPA per play data matters more than those from pre-2020. That said, older data can’t be fully discounted, or else you miss bounce-back performers of great quarterback returning to form, like Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021.

This week the rankings expand to 34 quarterbacks, with a lot of uncertainty whether we will see Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke for the Falcons, plus questions on Deshaun Watson’s status with P.J. Walker potentially needed to start again. I’m not sure he’ll play this week, but I added Kyler Murray to the rankings, and moved Josh Dobbs to the Vikings reflecting the trade deadline move.