Week 8 TNF Rams-Vikings: Advanced Review

The Vikings stellar defense now looking vulnerable, as the Rams and Matthew Stafford pick them apart in a shootout

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LA-MIN

Big win for the Rams to keep them close in an NFC West without a standout team. The Rams at 3-4 are only one game behind the Seahawks, tied with the 49ers, who they currently have the tie-breaker against. The Vikings fell out a game out of the top of the NFC North, also losing the tiebreaker to the Lions a week ago. The Lions are basically even money to win the division now, with the Vikings at roughly 25%.

Things are still going extremely well overall for the Vikings at 5-2, having one of the better defenses in the NFL and Sam Darnold playing like a competent NFL quarterback. But previous smooth sailing has turned to rougher water the last two weeks. In their first five games (all wins), they only ran offensive plays from a trailing position seven times total (all against the Giants early). In the last two weeks, they’ve run 49 plays from behind on the scoreboard. Encouragingly for the Vikings, their offense has been better trailing than leading, pointing to the defense being the issue the last two weeks.

In this game, both offenses were efficient, each outperforming in EPA what you would have forecasted simply based on their down-by-down success rate, which were more mediocre at 48% and 43% for the Rams and Vikings, respectively. That efficiency was driven by passing for both teams, and could have been higher if not for both leaning a bit into the run versus expectation: 57% dropback rate for the Rams and 59% for the Vikings.

Relative late-down success was key for the Rams, gaining +3.4 on third down conversions (-2.3 for the Vikings) and converting their lone fourth down try (+1.7 EPA). That more than offset their turnover disadvantage (-3.3), though you should probably label the Vikings safety taken near the end of the game as a turnover (-2.1).

I understand the controversy with the facemask call missed on the play, but I admit it looked clean to me watching in real-time, and the ability to review everything is something I’d endorse but likely hated by the same people complaining about the missed call. Either way, Darnold held the ball too long and the Vikings allowed a Rams rusher to make a play with pressure.

Both teams were largely ineffective running the ball, with Aaron Jones totaling -3.8 EPA on 19 designed runs (58 yards, 3.1 YPC) and Kyren Williams and Blake Corum at -3.9 EPA on 27 carries (108 yards, 4.0 YPC).

The big-name receivers all contributed in this game, including Puka Nacua (+8.6, 11 targets), Justin Jefferson (+7.3, 9) and Cooper Kupp (+4.2, 10).

Excellent efficiency numbers for both quarterbacks, with those figures solidified by equally good accuracy numbers and a lack of sacks taken. Stafford was just too good in this game with his full complement of weapons back, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt and throwing for four touchdowns, while not taking any sacks.

Last week and in London, you could point to Darnold as being somewhat disappointing overall, but not in this loss. He didn’t make the needed plays at the end, but was more let down by his defense and rushing game than the reverse.