Week 8, TNF Bills-Buccaneers: Advanced Review
Week 8, TNF Bills-Buccaneers: Advanced Review
The final score is much closer than the fundamentals, but the Bills will take a much-needed win
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
BUF vs TB
This one wasn’t nearly as close as the final score, as the Bills dominated the first 35 minutes of the game, establishing a 14-point lead and establishing a 96% win probability (was high at 84% pre-game). The thing is, it should have been even worse for the Bucs at that point. A fluky tipped interception gifted the Bucs the ball 23 yards from the end zone before their one touchdown drive, and the Bills early in the game failed to convert 3rd and 4th & Goal from the 1 yard-line.
The Bills substantially outperformed the Bucs in offensive success rate (52% to 38%) and yards per play (6.3 to 4.9), but significantly lost the turnover advantage (-5.5 EPA) and giving up a number of big Bucs conversions on penalties (-6.5 EPA advantage on penalties and special teams). The Bucs converted three fourth down attempts (two via Bills penalty) in a row on their final touchdown drive for a combined value add of +11.5 EPA.
The offensive efficiency numbers for the Bills and Bucs look similar overall and even better dropping back to pass, but that’s based entirely on huge benefits from a handful of plays that went in the Bucs favor. Josh Allen’s tipped interception on the first play of the Bills fourth drive was the biggest play in win probability and expected points (-11.6% & -5.5 EPA), and all four fourth down tries show up on the top-10 most impactful plays: three conversions for the Bucs and one failure for the Bills.
The Bucs did miss a 50-yard field goal via block, but that’s not exactly a gimme, even with decent conditions in Buffalo last night (8-12 MPH winds, fair temperature).
We saw the much appreciated return of running Josh Allen in this game, which helped to mitigate the big EPA losses from his interception and fourth down failure (-9.2 EPA). Excluding those two plays, Allen produced +16.8 EPA passing and running, or 0.35 per play, an MVP-type level. Allen was accurate in this game at +10.1% CPOE, another hint that he was better than his efficiency number.
Allen has six designed runs the last two weeks, only one less than his total from previous six weeks. Mixing more of that back into his game, even at the risk of injury, might be the best path for the Bills to win in all this season. Allen might need to carry the team with multiple significant injuries on defense, though the Bills’ non-Allen rushing efficiency is much improved this year.
Baker Mayfield had another solid overall efficiency performances, buoyed by late-down success, something he’s been seeing a lot of this year. Mayfield will need to be more consistent on early down to maintain his surprising top-10 efficiency this year. Mayfield’s 197 dropbacks and designed runs on 1st & 2nd downs have produced exactly zero EPA, whereas 99 plays on 3rd & 4th downs have generated +33.3 EPA. That said, even if he regresses to average performance, a $1.7 million cap charge this season is outstanding value for a Bucs team with good talent surrounding their quarterback.
