Week 8 Thursday Night Chargers-Vikings: Advanced Review
The Los Angeles Chargers dominate on both sides of the ball, in what might be the last we see of Carson Wentz for the Minnesota Vikings
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
LAC (-3) vs MIN
The Los Angeles Chargers cruised to victory over the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday night, with the adjusted scores and advanced metrics painting nearly as dominant of a win as the actual 27-point differential. The Chargers offense was humming with a 56.5% success rate, and its defense held the Vikings to only 32.5%. The Chargers extended their advantage on late downs to the tune of +17.7 expected points, going 9-for-13 on third downs to the Vikings at 3-for-11 (0-for-1 on fourth).
It wasn’t a completely clean game from the Chargers offense, as another of Justin Herbert’s passes was tipped and then ended up in the arms of a defender (-5.4 EPA), and they missed a 49-yard field goal (-3.7 EPA). According to my adjusted efficiency numbers, Herbert has had the worst luck among the top-10 quarterbacks, with previously tipped interceptions, poor fumble recovery luck and little in the way of receiver yards-after-catch.
While Herbert was efficient dropping back to pass, the Chargers offense was able to grind the game away on the ground. Kimani Vidal rushed for 117 and a score on 23 carries (+3.0 EPA) and the Chargers totaled 207 rushing yards to 212 net passing yards. Stopping the run is the vulnerability of the Vikings defense, currently ranked 24th in opponent EPA per rush, versus fifth against the pass.
You figure this has to be the end of the road for Carson Wentz and that J.J. McCarthy will return after an extended break in Week 9. He’ll have a tough matchup going on the road to face the Detroit Lions, but Wentz’s implosion gives the second-year quarterback a lot more breathing room to have his own struggles before fans call for his head. The Vikings are already big underdogs to make the playoffs, so the next couple weeks will likely define if they have any chance.
Herbert’s seasonal efficiency is still a bit low at 13th in EPA per play, but he’ll likely be closing in on the top-5 by my adjusted numbers. Outside of the tipped pick, he was truly outstanding, displaying accuracy, pushing the ball down the field and even adding some scrambling value.
At 5-3, the Chargers are a game behind the Denver Broncos in the loss column and a game ahead of the Kansas City Chiefs in wins. The Chiefs are still the favorites to win the AFC West, despite losing to the Chargers earlier this year. The Chargers have a friendly stretch of the schedule coming, facing the Titans, Steelers, Jags and Raiders, before finishing against the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans and Broncos.
