Week 8, SNF Chargers-Bears: Advanced Review

Chargers run out to an early commanding lead, with little resistance from the Bears on either side of the ball

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

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** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LAC vs CHI

The numbers here are skewed a bit by the Chargers turning drastically to the run with a large early lead that was never under any real threat. The Chargers started the game with an 83% win probability according to implied betting odds, then expanded that number to 95% at the end of the first quarter (14-0) and 99% by halftime (24-7, getting the ball first in the second half).

Dropping back to pass, the Chargers were very solid, hitting the 80th percentile in EPA efficiency (+0.32 per play), at a success rate of 57.8%. Running the ball was an entirely different story at 2nd percentile efficiency (-0.57) and a paltry 8.3% success rate. When you do something so poorly 35% of the time (Chargers rush rate), then the overall numbers look a lot less impressive.

Lots of good and bad for Austin Ekeler in the game, having two of the three worst plays in value (-5.8 EPA fumble and -3.9 EPA 4th down failure) and a 39-yard touchdown catch-and-run (+3.7 EPA). The big difference in the good and bad was the impact on the game in win probability, with the negatives when the game was completely out of reach (combined -0.3% win probability added) and the good on the Chargers’ first drive (+7.8 WPA).

Outstanding efficiency for Justin Herbert in the game, which brings his seasonal efficiency ranking to a virtual tie for 6th (+0.16 EPA/play) with Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts. His impact is probably overstated by the numbers in this game, with a 4.5-yard aDOT and the vast majority of value being produced by receivers after the catch.

I don’t think Herbert will get back into the MVP race with the Chargers at 3-4, but he has four more island games remaining this season to make positive impressions, including a trip to visit the Jets on Monday night next week. With the rest of the elite quarterbacks muddling through recent weeks, perhaps he’s a value at 40-1. That said, I can make a good argument the schedule is too tough with the Lions, Ravens, Bills and Chiefs still remaining.

Tyson Bagent had a poor effort in a tough spot. Losing 7.3 expected points to interceptions, and another 3.8 on 4th down failure. Bagent looked like the competent but limited UDFA that he is.