Week 8 NFL Power Rankings

The rankings are solidifying near the top, with the Chiefs distancing a bit from the pack

The Week 8 power rankings combine the initial, Week 1 power rankings I released and the evidence from four weeks of NFL football. The key in updating the rankings is knowing when to not overreact (Lions taking a shellacking in Green Bay) and when to be aggressively moving assumptions (maybe the Colts offense will be functional with a real NFL quarterback). Right now, the rankings incorporate roughly 75/25 mix of team strength based on this and last season’s performance.

For more info you can find the archive of previous Power Rankings posts, including the Week 1 rankings that detail much of the methodology of coming up with .

In this post, I’m going to walk through how my team-strength model views every team offensively and defensively for their 2025 performance going into Week 8, plus comparisons of my numbers to those derived by looking out over the next two weeks on the betting markets.

TEAM OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE STRENGTH

*Downloadable power ratings/rankings available in the paid subscriber Google sheet.

Congrats to me for having the formerly 3-3 Kansas City Chiefs at the top of my rankings going into last week. As you’ll see below, they’re now rated as the best team in the NFL by betting markets, after a severe beat-down of the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs rank second in 2025 performance according to my adjusted numbers, but they get a boost over the No. 1 Indianapolis Colts in my go-forward projections due to a better offseason prior. Basically, I’m more confident that the Chiefs are better than the Colts based on personnel and past performance, though the Colts have been better this year.

There’s been a separation of a clear top-4 in the NFL in 2025 performance, which includes the Colts, Chiefs, Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams. Those four teams also make up the top-4 in my go-forward projections, though not in that order.

The Buffalo Bills are now solidly in the second-tier of NFL teams, after a hot start to the season that had them at the top of my power rankings a few weeks back. The Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks are closest to making the jump, but both teams have had questions about the consistency of their offensive output, mostly due to a lower volume of passing versus other top teams. My models value offense over defense in predictiveness, and also passing over rushing.

The rankings that got the most fans relied up last week was that of the Carolina Panthers at 27th. They’re now 4-3, but they don’t move in the rankings. They’d be slightly higher if Bryce Young wasn’t injured, but it wouldn’t be a drastic movement up. The Panthers aren’t winning due to quarterback play, with Young ranked 25th in EPA per play this year. The Panthers have been a below-average offensive and defensive team by my numbers.

UNEXPECTED POINTS VERSUS THE MARKET

** These are Tuesday morning numbers on the betting markets from inpredictable, which often firm up during the week.

** Ravens power ranking has Lamar Jackson added back in, with Bryce Young out (not much difference here)