Week 8, MNF Lions-Raiders: Advanced Review

A one-sided affair that the Lions tried their best to make interesting by giving the ball away. It didn't work

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

DET vs LV

I was very surprised to see the adjusted scores with as narrow a differential as four points after “watching” along this game mostly via social media. The Raiders actually had a better success rate offensively than the Lions, but were incredibly bad at a higher variance and critically impactful aspect of the game: late-down conversions.

The Raiders were 1-of-9 on third down conversions, and 0-for-3 on fourth downs, resulting in -18.1 EPA on those 12 play. While the Lions gained +6.3 EPA on 16 third and fourth downs. On early downs (first and second), the Raiders had a positive advantage over the Lions of roughly 12 EPA. Much of the early down advantage for the Raiders came from lower-upside rushing gains (70.6% success rate, +0.05 EPA per play), another reason to take their advantage with a grain of salt.

The Lions gave the Raiders lots of chances to stay in the game via turnovers, with their third quarter pick-6 the most impactful play of the game at -11.2 EPA, a Craig Reynolds fumble ranking second at -5.5 EPA, and another fumble from Josh Reynolds fourth at -4.9 EPA. Jimmy Garoppolo returned the favor with an interception of his own (-5.3 EPA).

This was a decent efficiency game for Goff, especially considering how many expected points were lost on the one pick-6 by Marcus Peters, which was a truly horrific decision. But he didn’t take any sacks or make any other mistakes, and Lions pass-catchers gained roughly two-thirds of their yards after the catch.

This was a nightmare game for Jimmy Garoppolo truthers, like yours truly. An abjectly bad performance in an island game with millions of Davante Adams fantasy managers needing a big result and not coming close to getting it (one catch for 11 yards). Garoppolo hasn’t been great overall this year (fell from 16th to 23rd in EPA per play after last night), but almost all the badness has come in two highly viewed island games. In two games against the Steelers on SNF and Lions last night, Garoppolo has produced -27.5 EPA. In his four other non-island games, Garoppolo has +17.5 EPA.