Week 8 Late Window (plus NYJ-NYG): Advanced Reviews

Joe Burrow and the Bengals offensive are back, the Chiefs lose a shocker, while the Seahawks and Ravens keep winning

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

NYG vs NYJ

I forgot to include this one in the early window reviews, but there might not be a better descriptor for this game than forgettable. Neither team could do much of anything offensively, with the Giants truly hitting bottom of the barrel outcomes for success rate and passing efficiency.

The only positive offensive passing play to make the list of top-10 most impactful was a 50-yard catch and run by Breece Hall where the ball travelled a single yard down the field in the air.

At least the Giants had excuses for their offensive ineptitude, with backup-and-starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor knocked out of the game and practice squad call-up Tommy DeVito forced into action. Not that Taylor was much better by the numbers, the the Giants basically gave up on passing the ball in the second half.

Zach Wilson currently ranks 32nd in EPA per play this year among 33 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks. Yet the Jets have four wins and three losses, a miracle that probably doesn’t have sustainability, no matter how good their defense is.

The Jets gave up an estimated 11.2% win probability punting three times on 4th & 1, and I can’t say I blame Robert Salah (I do, but you get the joke).

SEA vs CLE

The Seahawks score a touchdown on their final drive to beat the Browns at home. Both teams were in the middle range for success rate and offensive efficiency, with the Seahawks taking advantage of the consistently mistake-prone P.J. Walker.