Week 8 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Falcons-Dolphins, Ravens-Bears, Panthers-Bills, Bengals-Jets, Texans-49ers, Patriots-Browns & Eagles-Giants

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ATL (-6.5) vs MIA

Even without Michael Penix the markets viewed the Atlanta Falcons as big favorites at home, perhaps hinting at the perception that Kirk Cousins isn’t much of a downgrade. Well, the markets appeared wrong, at least for one week. The Falcons were held to only three points before a meaningless late touchdown, had a poor 33.3% offensive success rate and posted EPA efficiency below the 9th percentile. The Falcons couldn’t sustain offensive drives, going 2-for-11 on third conversions, and lost a Bijan Robinson fumble on one of their most successful drives of the game at the Dolphins 19-yard line (-5.5 EPA).

It was an offensive showing for the Miami Dolphins, looking like the unit we expected to see all season: 51.7% success rate, 81st percentile EPA efficiency and safe with the football. The Dolphins only had 197 net passing yards, leaning on the run playing almost the entire game with a substantial lead. The Dolphins only averaged 3.8 YPC, but sustained drives and made valuable short-yardage conversions to get totals of 141 rushing yards and 37 carries.

The Robinson fumble was the killer play that essentially closed the door to a Falcons victory, going from roughly 20% pre-play win probability to less than 10%. The Dolphins finished the next drive with a 43-yard touchdown reception for Jaylen Waddle, the second most impactful play of the game, moving their win probability to nearly 97%.

This was the second best game of the season for Tua Tagovailoa by EPA efficiency and total EPA, though he was heavily reliant on YAC value. This was the type of game with something for Tagovailoa truthers and haters, as his value came on lower volume from limiting mistakes and receivers making plays. Tagovailoa, surprisingly, only has two games of negative EPA this season, but they were so bad that his overall EPA efficiency only ranks 26th among 31 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks this year.

BAL (-2.5) vs CHI

The week of quarterback backups continues with Tyler Huntley making an unexpected appearance in lieu of Lamar Jackson, who needs more than the bye to recover from his hamstring injury. The decision hints at the seriousness of the injury, or the caution of the Baltimore Ravens staff and Jackson himself, as a loss here would have severely weakened their playoff chances.

But all those worries were for not, as Huntley stepped in and shepherded an outstanding Ravens offense, with an EPA efficiency above the 85th percentile. That said, the Ravens were outgained by the Chicago Bears 355 yards to 372, and the adjusted scores had this game close to a toss-up.