Week 8 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

The Cowboys roll, Bryce Young best C.J. Stroud and the Dolphins get back on track

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CAR vs HOU

The Panthers eek out victory in a battle of the top-2 pick in the 2023 NFL draft, though neither was particularly impressive. The adjusted scores had the Texans as slightly better than the Panthers, mostly due to the Panthers benefiting from higher variance special teams play and penalties. Both teams had issues moving the ball, but the Texans had a slightly higher success rate, and averaged 4.1 yards per play to the Panthers at an anemic 3.7.

The Panthers were especially bad running the ball, averaging a loss of half-a-point in value with each designed run. The Texans had the reverse, with relatively success on the ground.

The biggest play of the game in win probability and expected points came on the Texans first drive of the second half, giving up a fumble inside their own 30.

There were meaningful positives for Bryce Young to build off of in this game, including some big plays (40 and 31-yard passes) that had been absent in previous games. But Young lost a ton of value on sacks (-8.1 EPA), four coming on 1st & 10 and putting the Panthers offense is difficult conversion position.

C.J. Stroud didn’t lose the game for the Texans, but he didn’t win it either. Stroud avoided negatives outside of two sacks.

DAL vs LA