Week 8 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Lamar Jackson and Trevor Lawrence ascending, Tua Tagovailoa falling (a little), and darkness surrounding the long-term trajectory of Sam Howell

For those of you looking for the Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE) numbers, it might be a week (or two) before I have the data to produce them. I’m figuring it all out now and appreciate the patience. I am producing a slimmed down version that I’m calling Luck-Adjusted Efficiency.

You can find all the previous weeks’ versions of the Bayesian Quarterback Rankings here.

COMPARING GRADES AND EFFICIENCY

PFF grades aren’t part of the analysis, but I find it helpful to make not of how they align with EPA per play, as many contextual elements of quarterback play (drops, interception-worthy throws, easier throws that become big gains, etc) are part of the grading methodology, but aren’t accounted for in EPA. At the same time, I think EPA does a vastly superior job of weighing what is and isn’t important in points-based results.

A distinct top-tier is forming for quarterback efficiency in EPA per play, but PFF grading reads more like one continuous line from first to last. Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa all are materially above the 0.2 EPA per play threshold for elite efficiency, with the next closest Lamar Jackson a fill 0.12 lower than Tagovailoa.

Jackson is more than equal in terms of PFF grading. In fact, he has the top offensive grade this year (90.8), marginally better than that for Mahomes (90.2). Poor luck with fumble recoveries and drops explains a portion of the EPA gap, but not nearly enough to bridge the metrics. I have a longstanding belief that PFF tends to overvalue in their grading accuracy and production that comes via a handful plays of plays, either what they deem “big-time throws” or “turnover-worthy plays”. Jackson is second in completion percentage, and top-5 in CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) and big-time throw rate.

Purdy hasn’t been as good the last couple weeks as earlier this season in efficiency, but his Week 7 performance was in the elite range (+0.28 EPA per play). Two late interceptions and a loss will color his perception, and PFF grading, more poorly than he true level.

The most notable dynamic, so far this season, is how little separates the metrics for assumed elite quarterbacks (Justin Herbert), assumed has-beens (Russell Wilson), journeymen (Baker Mayfield) and rookies (C.J. Stroud).

WEEK 8 PROJECTED EFFICIENCY

These results are the ranking for the go-forward projections of quarterback efficiency this season. I also included the EPA per play rankings for each quarterback over the last five seasons (minimum 250 dropbacks in previous years, 100 in 2023) so you can see the evidence going into the projections.

Older data is decayed over time, so the 2023 EPA per play data matters more than those from pre-2020. That said, older data can’t be fully discounted, or else you miss bounce-back performers of great quarterback returning to form, like Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021.

I’m going to err on the side of assuming a number of questionable quarterbacks will play this week, though I think at least one of Ryan Tannehill, Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo or Daniel Jones won’t play.