Week 7 TNF Saints-Broncos: Advanced Review

The Broncos' formula of good defense, strong running game, and not making mistakes at quarterback leads to an easy win and puts them in the playoff picture

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

NO-DEN

I will admit I didn’t watch this classic TNF matchup. From the look of the numbers and highlights, it didn’t disappoint versus expectations. The Broncos won big, deserved to do so by the adjusted scores (18 point differential, tied for the third highest this season), and their offense was highly successful netting positive EPA on a play-by-play basis (58% success rate).

The Saints offense was a mess, with multiple turnovers crushing dropback EPA (4th percentile), and the inability to make much passing the ball, even when they weren’t giving it to the opponent.

The Broncos relied on an insanely productive rushing attack, hitting a 70% success rate (highest of any team this season), and delivering a quarter of an expected point per rush, despite losing 5.4 expected points late in the game on a meaningless Audric Estime fumble. The running-back box score numbers tell the story: 23 carries for 152 yards (6.6 YPC) and two touchdowns.

The game was essentially out-of-reach midway through the third quarter. The two highest impact plays of the game were Spencer Rattler strip sacks. The first losing 5.4 expected points and a huge 13.7% win probability loss. The second coming after the game was out of reach, but an enormous 10.4 expected points lost with the Broncos taking it in on the scoop-and-score.

Despite the win, it wasn’t a good game for Bo Nix, who failed to generate any EPA passing the ball, but didn’t have +2.6 EPA on scrambles and runs. Superficially, Nix’s running was effective: 42 yards on three designed runs, plus another 33 yards on seven scrambles. But Nix lost expected points carrying the ball outside of a 3rd & 1 designed run that gained 32 yards. Nix only gained one first down on his seven scrambles, meaning they weren’t strategic as much as failed passing plays.

Nix completely avoided mistakes, taking zero sacks and no turnovers. It’s not fun to watch, but the Broncos formula of strong defense, good rushing offense, and their rookie quarterback making a couple plays with his legs while maintaining possession of the ball will win games. It’s just not going to work against strong offenses.

The Spencer Rattler truther committee might get disbanded after this game. It was ugly with turnovers, and things didn’t go well even when Rattler maintained possession of the ball. The -20.5 EPA on fumbles and sacks doesn’t even include a strip-and-score wiped out by penalty. Rattler had 136 net passing yards (minus sack yards) on 41 non-scramble dropbacks (3.3 yards per).

I have a feeling Derek Carr’s injury might see a miraculous recovery this week, as the Saints season now sits in the balance at 2-5. For the Broncos, they’re 4-3 with an implied betting probability of roughly 32% to make the playoffs.