Week 7 Thursday Night Bengals-Steelers: Advanced Review

Joe Flacco looks reborn in a huge ACF North win, while the Steelers offense almost pulled off the win with explosive plays

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

CIN vs PIT (-5.5)

Turn-back-the-clock night in Cincinnati, with 40-year-old quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco conducting an AFC North shootout. Earlier this week, Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin questioned the logic of the Cleveland Browns trading Flacco to a divisional rival, and his worst fears manifested on Thursday night.

The Bengals offensive hit a solid 51% success rate, 95th percentile EPA efficiency and, after two early punts, scored on seven of their next eight drives. The Steelers offense was nearly as effective, though that’s less surprising with four-time MVP Rodgers at the helm: 48% success rate, 94th percentile EPA efficiency and only two punts.

It wasn’t just the old-timer quarterbacks executing on the offense; both teams ran the ball extremely well. Because there was so much pressure to score for both teams, there wasn’t a lot of rushing volume. But the teams combined for 280 rushing yards on 37 designed runs (7.6 YPC).

While all of the top-10 impactful plays were positives for both offenses, the Steelers hung in the game until the end by making the biggest explosive plays, including a 68-yard touchdown pass to Pat Freiermuth to take the lead late (+6.1 EPA, +33.3% win probability). Even the two Rodgers interceptions weren’t big losses, one a bomb picked 46 yards down the field, and the other happening with fewer than 45 seconds left in the half.

In addition to making big plays, both quarterbacks avoided big negatives, with Rodgers losing only 4.2 expected points on his two pick and taking no sacks. Flacco didn’t turn the ball over, and only took two sacks (-3.1 EPA).

The biggest effect of this result is opening the door a bit wider for the Baltimore Ravens to eventually catch the Steelers in the AFC North. Lamar Jackson should return off of the Ravens Week 7 bye, and betting markets have the Steelers as only ever so slightly favored over the Ravens to win the division, despite being three full games ahead. The Steelers and Ravens will clash twice in the last five weeks of the season.