The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2022-2026 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Bears (-3, 59%) vs Patriots
The Chicago Bears and New England Patriots finished with similar offensive success rates and EPA efficiencies, but the Bears enjoyed advantages in the three highlighted categories of high-variance play: +5.3 EPA in net turnovers (+1 differential), +9.2 EPA in net late-down value (3rd & 4th) and +2.5 EPA in special teams and penalties.
But adding the context of how the game unfolded, it appeared to be more of a dominant victory for the Bears, who never trailed and held a 20-7 lead with three seconds left in the first half (86.3% estimated win probability) before Rhamondre Stevenson took a short pass 48 yards for a shocking touchdown. That play kept the Patriots in the game (+14% win probability), but they never got above a 35% win probability in the second half.
The Bears’ two fourth down conversions were massively positive (+4.6 EPA), and sometimes these can go under the radar in the minds of observers, though they came on drives that only resulted in three total points (one missed field goal). For the Patriots, their initial drive ended on 4th-and-5 (-2.9 EPA), a conversion that surely would have put them in position to score points.