Week 7 Sunday Night 49ers-Falcons: Advanced Review

The 49ers get another fairly unimpressive win with Mac Jones at the helm, bolstered by a dominating rushing performance

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

SF (-1.5) vs ATL

The San Francisco 49ers didn’t get their starting quarterback back this week, but they didn’t end up needing anything special from their passing game to get the win against the Atlanta Falcons. The 49ers defense held the Falcons offense to a 42% success rate and 25th percentile EPA efficiency, driven by a costly turnover (-4.7 EPA) and two fourth down stops (-7.4 EPA).