Week 7 SNF Steelers-Jets: Advanced Review
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams couldn't get on the same page, while George Pickens thrived with Russell Wilson
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
PIT-NYJ
This has to be one of the biggest shifts in actual-to-adjusted scores in 2024. A 22-point win turns into a 1-point loss for the Steelers by the adjustments. There are many factors involved, but primarily it’s due to the fact that the Jets were more consistently successful on offense, and the Steelers benefited mightily from nearly all the higher-variance aspects of football.
The Steelers had a +9.3 EPA turnovers advantage from two interceptions, one an incredible play by Beanie Bishop Jr. to reach back and make the play, the other a drop-turned-pick (also by Bishop) that was taken back to the Jets 1-yard line. The adjusted scores model assumes a degree of bad luck in all turnovers, but these were certainty more extreme than those assumptions.
The Steelers leveraged a +7.2 EPA late-down (3rd/4th) advantage, almost entirely due to fourth-down successes, converting a sneak at the goal-line and another touchdown on 4th & 2 from the Jets’ 10-yard line. If one of those plays goes the other direction, the net gain flips roughly 6 expected points.
The Steelers also had big advantages in special teams and penalties. The Jets had a very makeable 35-yard field goal blocked (-4.4 EPA), while the Steelers made all three of their field-goal attempts (+1.5 EPA). And one of the Steelers biggest plays was a 29-yard pass interference call (+2.1 EPA).
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