Week 7, SNF Eagles-Dolphins: Advanced Review

A complete performance for the Eagles offense and defense, brushing aside a couple big turnovers for an easy win

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

PHI vs MIA

Despite a big turnover disadvantage that kept the Dolphins close, the Eagles ultimately win in convincing fashion. The Eagles were the more consistent offense by success rate (49% to 40%), and gained significant value from a number of Dolphins penalties while committing none themselves (10 for 70 yards, +5.4 EPA).

The Dolphins high-flying offense was mostly grounded, outside of a big 27-yard touchdowns by Tyreek Hill to end the half and cut the lead to 7 points. This was the worst offensive game of the season in total EPA per play, passing EPA per play, total success rate, passing success rate and rushing success rate.

Shockingly, the two most negative plays of the game by win probability lost were committed by the Eagles offense: a tipped pick-6 (-23.3%) and a Jalen Hurts strip-sack (-16.5%).

Ultimately, the mistakes for the Eagles didn’t matter when their offense converted often before reaching fourth down, and was unstoppable executing the brotherly shove. The Eagles gained 10.6 expected points on four fourth down conversions (three shoves, one 32-yard pass for 5.1 EPA to A.J. Brown on 4th & 3), going a perfect 4-for-4. Brown is on an insane tear, averaging 11.8 targets for 8.2 receptions and 140 yards since Week 3, plus scoring three touchdowns. He had a 15-10-137-1 line in this game.

The Dolphins were 0-for-2, giving the Eagles a massive 16.3 EPA advantage on the most critical down. The Eagles decided to go-for-it on four of the six fourth downs they faced, twice inside their own 40 yard-line.

Outside of two huge negatives, Jalen Hurts was near perfect, adding high-end value down the field, on intermediate routes and rushing for another 6.4 EPA.

I was a little surprised to see Tua Tagovailoa with the second-highest MVP going into this week, and somehow (??) that’s still the case after last night. I don’t get it, but it wasn’t a terrible performance outside of three plays: a 3rd & 8 Darius Slay interception deep in Eagles territory and two fourth down conversion failures.