Week 7, MNF Vikings: Advanced Review

A "stunning" victory for the Vikings over the consensus top NFL team, with a lot of help from big plays and third down success

Jordan Addison shines in a leading role with the absence of Justin Jefferson

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

MIN vs SF

The Vikings continue to be the results != fundamentals team of the NFL. The adjusted scores have the 49ers as the somewhat comfortably better team, yet the Vikings pull off the 5-point victory. Six times last season, the adjusted scores disagreed with the actual results in Vikings games, all six with the Vikings getting the W. This year, it’s happened in four of seven games, with the difference split and two times in the Vikings favor.

The headline number driving the difference in adjusted and actual scores are the respective offensive success rates: 41.7% (Vikings) to 54.7% (49ers). The Vikings were especially productive on late downs, converting 8-of-13 third downs from relatively long distances (6.4 yards-to-go), and stacking big plays on the most important downs, including two long Jordan Addison touchdowns (60 and 20 yards gained).

Both the Vikings and 49ers were only forced to punt one time last night, with the 49ers coming away with zero points on a combined four drives in Vikings territory (fumble, missed FG, interception, interception).