Week 7 London & Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Jaguars-Rams, Bears-Saints, Browns-Dolphins, Chiefs-Raiders, Vikings-Eagles, Jets-Panthers & Titans-Patriots

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

London: JAX vs LA (-3)

The Los Angeles Rams were clearly the better team by the numbers, though not as much as the wipeout final score. The Jacksonville Jaguars couldn’t extend drives, going 3-for-15 on third down (-10.2 EPA) and 2-for-6 (-5.2) on fourth down conversions. The Jaguars actually had a stronger, but weak, yards per play (4.8 to 4.4), but the Rams maximized points by converting all four of their red zone trips into touchdowns.

On the strength of their dropback passing, the Rams posted overall EPA efficiency in near the 90th percentile. They didn’t have a lot of production in yardage, but short fields led to five passing touchdowns for Matthew Stafford, including a 31-yard strike that was the biggest EPA swing of the game, serving as a second or third nail in the coffin on 4th & 1 in the fourth quarter.

It was a poor game for Trevor Lawrence, failing on several fourth downs, taking seven sacks and completing fewer than half of his 48 pass attempts. The Jags have come crashing down from their 4-1 start to the season with back-to-back crushing losses, and get a bye week before an attractive matchup against the flailing Las Vegas Raiders.

Depending on how you look at it, the Rams are both better and worse than their 5-2 record. They should have beaten the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3 if not for a blocked kick touchdown return, but their wins have come against some poor competition: the Houston Texans, Tennessee Titans, the Jackson-less Baltimore Ravens. The Rams AFC South games were front-loaded this season, and now they face a stronger - though not especially difficult - schedule going forward.

CHI (-4.5) vs NO

The Chicago Bears were +3 in turnover margin (+14.1 EPA) and rode an efficient running game to victory over the New Orleans Saints. The Bears weren’t great offensively (41.5% success rate), but D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangi combined for 205 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries (6.4 YPC), while they basically treaded water passing the ball.