Week 7 London & Early Window: Advanced Reviews
All the advanced stats, visualizations and commentary for Jaguars-Patriots, Falcons-Seahawks, Bills-Titans, Browns-Bengals, Packers-Texans, Colts-Dolphins, Vikings-Lions and Giants-Eagles
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
JAX (-6) vs NE
The Patriots took an early 10-0 lead, but things were progressively downhill from there. The Jags were just about as big of winners by the adjusted scores as actual, reflecting their vastly superior offensive success rate (55% to 34%), even if they benefited from a fluky special teams touchdown.
There was no rushing attack for the Patriots, with 20 yards gained by running backs on 15 carries (total -4.1 EPA). Overall, they still posted 65th percentile EPA efficiency based on a high volume of efficient passes.
The most impactful play of the game was a 96-yard punt return touchdown by Parker Washington (+6.6 EPA). The Jaguars were strong in both phases of their offense, better passing at the 97th percentile. But they also hit the 70th percentile rushing, despite losing 3.5 expected points on a single 4th & 1 failure from the Patriots 6 yard-line.
The star of the Jaguars receivers was the rookie Brian Thomas Jr., with a somewhat muted stat line of 5-5-89-1, but totaling +11.2 EPA when targeted (+1.87 per).
Drake Maye had good efficiency, was accurate by the numbers (5.2% CPOE) and avoided mistakes. Despite the lack of rushing support and bad offensive line play, Maye didn’t turn the ball over and took only two sacks. This was the type of performance that will win a lot of games for Maye in the future, just not without any help from his defense.
Trevor Lawrence has posted three straight weeks of strong efficiency, on the heels of disastrous performances against the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans, which had many questioning if he’s actually the generational talent we saw coming into the NFL. Lawrence now sits right in the middle of NFL quarterbacks in efficiency this season, better than C.J. Stroud.
ATL (-3) vs SEA
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