Week 7 Early Window: Advanced Reviews

Lamar Jackson looks like 2019 MVP version, now using his arm for the big plays

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

BAL vs DET

It tells you something about how one-sided the game was when the top-4 impactful plays in expected points changes registered no effect on win probability for either team. The Ravens scored four touchdowns before the Lions converted a single first down, and were up 35-0 until the Lions finally scored in the fourth quarter.

The adjusted score is significantly more narrow than the actual score (+10 vs +32) for a few reasons. First, the Ravens success rate doesn’t match their offensive efficiency percentile, relying on big-plays and near-perfect conversion rate on third and fourth down to run out to a huge lead. The Ravens had eight plays of at least 20 yards, bucking the trend of recent league-wide offensive performance.

Second, the Lions were better offensively than their scoring production, entering Ravens territory three times in their first seven drives, but coming away with zero points after two failed fourth down conversions and an interception.

Lamar Jackson’s +25.4 total EPA generation was his highest game total since the MVP 2019 season. Jackson was accurate (+11.1 completion percentage over expectation), and didn’t rely much at all on rushing production (1.3 EPA). There were some big plays via yards-after-catch, like Gus Edwards’ 80-yard reception already up 28-0. But most of the value Jackson was creating through the air was the traditional, down-the-field type that Todd Monken was hoping to bring to the offense.