Week 7 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Tua Tagovailoa makes a leap to the front of bunched rankings near the top, and Brock Purdy falls out of the top-10

For those of you looking for the Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE) numbers, it might be a week (or two) before I have the data to produce them. I’m figuring it all out now and appreciate the patience. I am producing a slimmed down version that I’m calling Luck-Adjusted Efficiency.

You can find all the previous weeks’ versions of the Bayesian Quarterback Rankings here.

COMPARING GRADES AND EFFICIENCY

PFF grades aren’t part of the analysis, but I find it helpful to make not of how they align with EPA per play, as many contextual elements of quarterback play (drops, interception-worthy throws, easier throws that become big gains, etc) are part of the grading methodology, but aren’t accounted for in EPA. At the same time, I think EPA does a vastly superior job of weighing what is and isn’t important in points-based results.

Luckily Brock Purdy’s poor game in Cleveland drops his efficiency to a level that doesn’t break the plot, but he’s still No. 1 this season. Purdy, along with Tua Tagovailoa are the biggest outliers for efficiency over grading, with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes not too far behind.

In the other direction, Lamar Jackson has the biggest negative gap between grades and EPA/play, a reflection of drops and, perhaps, giving him a bit too much credit in grading for high-level throws while not executing the offense more consistently. Daniel Jones is also an outlier in the same way, but it’s more a signal that perhaps he’s only been bad, not godawful this year.

WEEK 7 PROJECTED EFFICIENCY

These results are the ranking for the go-forward projections of quarterback efficiency this season. I also included the EPA per play rankings for each quarterback over the last six seasons (minimum 250 dropbacks in previous years, 80 in 2023) so you can see the evidence going into the projections.

Older data is decayed over time, so the 2023 EPA per play data matters more than those from pre-2020. That said, older data can’t be fully discounted, or else you miss bounce-back performers of great quarterback returning to form, like Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021.

My assumptions for this week is that Justin Fields and Jimmy Garoppolo are out, Daniel Jones and Deshaun Watson return, and I’m keeping the bye-week starters in the mix for rankings context.