Week 6 TNF Chiefs-Broncos: Advanced Review

The Chiefs win easy against a Broncos offense that couldn't get out of its own way

Travis Kelce was the story on- and off-the-field

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

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KC vs DEN

Both teams struggled to convert third downs, lowering the actual scores versus adjusted. The Chiefs had a solid 50.7% offensive success, and the Broncos were decent at 44.2%. Yet both teams couldn’t find success on the highest leverage down. The Chiefs under Patrick Mahomes have been consistently one of the best teams in converting, but were 4-of-13 last night, a rate 9.2% under expectation. The Broncos had a better, but still bad, absolute conversion rate at 4-of-10, but were 14% under expectation, failing on a number of short conversions. Both teams also failed on one fourth down conversion attempt.