The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2022-2026 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Broncos vs Seahawks (-2.5, 57%)
A 12-point swing from actual to adjusted scores in this one, with the Seattle Seahawks playing like the much better team, but the Denver Broncos concentrating their barren offensive production into a couple of difference-making touchdown drives. The Broncos finished with an awful 28% offensive success rate, while the Seahawks posted a somewhat poor 41% rate.
Despite that differential, the Broncos won the game on the back of turnovers (+3 differential, +10.9 EPA), penalties (+3.7 EPA) and a 3.9 expected point loss for a Jason Myers missed 47-yard field goal.
The Broncos’ offensive ineptitude by yardage figures is something to behold, gaining only 168 yards on 12 legitimate possessions (vs 353 for the Seahawks), converting 13 first downs (24), averaging 2.9 yards per play (4.3). Outside of their two touchdown drives, the Broncos gained 35 yards on 10 possessions, or 3.5 yards per possession.
Those two touchdown drives in the first half required going 3-for-4 on third-down conversions (plus one with add-on penalty), and mitigating the one failure with a 4th & 3 rushing conversion by Tyler Badie (+2.9 EPA). The Broncos didn’t convert a third down on any other drive, going 0-for-10 the rest of the way.
