The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2026-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Packers vs Cowboys (-1.5, 51%)
The Green Bay Packers won comfortably at home against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, enjoying a massive +21.8 EPA differential on late downs to get the win. Both teams posted similar, and slightly poor, offensive success rates, and averaged only around 4.5 yards per play.
The Packers went 11-for-18 on third downs (+11.4 EPA) and converted their one 4th & 3 (+3.6), while the Cowboys were 5-for-13 (-6.7) on third downs and netted basically flat EPA on their four fourth down tries.
