Week 6 SNF Giants-Bengals: Advanced Review

Bengals flip the script and see their defense carry the team to victory against the foundering Giants

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

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** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

NYG-CIN

I think this game is the only flip in winner by adjusted scores versus actual, with the Giants posting a materially better success rate offensively. It was also a flip of previous Bengals contests, when Joe Burrow and the offense had stellar numbers, but their defense dragged them down to a loss. This week, they won with poor offensive fundamentals.

I don’t think I agree with the model here, as the Bengals at least showed some hope offensively passing the ball (5.8 net YPA vs 4.2), even if the teams ended up with nearly equal total yardage on 40% more plays for the Giants.

The Bengals keys to victory were some of the higher variance aspects of play, including a huge scramble touchdown from an improbable 3rd & 18, a 30-yard rushing touchdown, and a missed Giants field goal from a makeable 45 yards out. I’m comfortable saying this was an ugly game all-around, and either team could have won with a couple plays flipped in different directions.