Week 6 NFL Power Rankings

My model-based numbers possibly the lone holdout with the Bills at No. 1. The 49ers are getting close

49ers are moving up the rankings, but not quite at No. 1 yet

You notice that some of the rankings shifts and movements in power rating don’t correspond exactly with intuition based solely on Week 5 results. The numbers still use some 2022 data, and prior weeks are having their effect sizes decayed, which can cause slight adjustments that look big. When lots of teams are bunched up in the middle and bottom of the NFL, even a marginal change in power rating can move a team 3-6 spots.

* The detailed information for power rankings are on the paid subscriber Google sheet (along with other site metrics). You can find previous Power Rankings write-ups on the landing page.

WHAT WE’VE LEARNED IN 2023

First let’s look at the team offensive and defensive efficiencies so far in 2023, using my adjusted-score methodology to measure performance, and factoring in strength of schedule.

My numbers probably contrast with general impressions of the 49ers being, by far, the best team this year. I have them in a tier with the Bills and Dolphins, as the best defense, but slightly worse offensively. In adjusted EPA per play, the offensive rankings for the three teams go Dolphins, 49ers then Bills.