Week 6 Monday Night Falcons-Bills & Commanders-Bears: Advanced Reviews

It's official: there are no great teams in the NFL as the Bills falls to the Falcons. While the Bears get revenge in Washington

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ATL vs BUF (-3.5)

Every week we get more confirmation that even the best teams in the NFL might not be as separated from the pack as we think, with this Buffalo Bills loss to the Atlanta Falcons adding to the trend. The Bills weren’t too far off from the Falcons in fundamental offensive success rate (47.4% to 49.3%), but the Falcons juiced much better efficiency with big plays, while the Bills suffered turnover losses and couldn’t extend drives (2-for-9 on third down, 0-for-1 on fourth).