Week 6 MNF Jets-Bills: Advanced Review

This game had everything fans love (and hate) about the NFL experience, with the clear best winning in the end

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2024-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

NYJ-BUF

There will be many complaints about the officiating in this game, but overall I think it was, perhaps, the most entertaining game of the season. You had two elite quarterbacks making one-of-a-kind throws, a Hail Mary conversion, kicker issues, big running plays, and, of course, many penalties on both sides.

Maybe I just have a sickness, but I’m somewhat entertained by even the penalties, which had huge impacts on the game, and a non-decision on a potential Rodgers fumble late in the game. In the end, the better team won, though I’m sure both fan bases were given enough material to work with to make themselves into victims, win or lose.