Week 6, MNF Chargers-Cowboys: Advanced Review

Both teams struggled to run the ball and score points, but the Cowboys came up with the big plays

Tony Pollard couldn’t run the ball, but made the biggest play as a receiver

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LAC vs DAL

Neither team was particularly successful in this game, with both defenses providing pressure and shutting down the opposing run games. Austin Ekeler and Tony Pollard combined for 30 designed runs that had a 20% success rate and lost a total of 12 expected points.