Week 6 London & Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Jets-Broncos, Ravens-Rams, Panthers-Cowboys, Colts-Cardinals, Jaguars-Seahawks, Dolphins-Chargers, Saints-Patriots & Steelers-Browns

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LONDON: NYJ vs DEN (-7.5)

Apologies to our international NFL brethren for exporting this contest to overseas. Somehow a game that finished 13-11 was even worse to watch than the score indicated. All kinds of offensive lows were hit in this game, most telling the New York Jets finishing with -10 net passing yards (sacks yards lost included).

While the Jets were historically bad, the Denver Broncos offense wasn’t good, with a 31.7% offensive success rate and 21st percentile EPA efficiency. The Jets’ equivalent figures were 25.4% (second worst for any NFL offense this year) and 2nd percentile.

What’s crazy is all this offensive ineptitude only included one turnover, a Troy Franklin post-catch fumble lost (-3.3 EPA). The Jets’ passing offense was worse than the 1st percentile in EPA efficiency (-0.73 per play), without any interceptions or fumbles. They did have as many sacks as completions (9) and the entire offense finished averaging 1.4 yards per play.

Justin Fields’ relatively strong Week 1 performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers now looks like one of the biggest head fakes possible, now posted two games with more than -13 EPA.

Bo Nix wasn’t awful, but he should be thanking Fields and the Jets for taking the attention (somewhat) off of his performance. Nix is 17th this season in EPA efficiency, between Kyler Murray and C.J. Stroud.

I think it’s safe to say that the Jets are not going to make the playoffs this season, which will make 15 straight years without an appearance, even in an era of an expanding format. In recent memory, the Buffalo Bills (17 years, 2000-2016) and Cleveland Browns (17 years, 2003-2019) both suffered even longer droughts.

BAL vs LA (-7.5)