Week 9, Frankfurt & Early Window: Advanced Reviews

C.J. Stroud steals the show, the Seahawks don't show up and the Chiefs-Dolphins matchup ends up an offensive snooze

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

KC vs MIA (Frankfurt)

In what was billed as a potential shootout between two of the more explosive offenses in the NFL, we ended up seeing a more of a defensive battle. Each offense took off one half and didn’t score, the Dolphins in the first and Chiefs in the second.

The fact that the Dolphins had any chance at all late in the game was improbable, after a 59-yard scoop lateral and score by the Chiefs defense pushed the lead to 21-0 in the late second quarter (21-0, 96% win probability).

After two straight tuchdowns in the third quarter, the Chiefs win probability was down to 82%, but the Dolphins failed to score on their last two drives, with the game ending on a Dolphins fumbled shotgun snap on 4th & 10 on the KC 31 yard-line.

Tyreek Hill’s fumble-6 was the most costly play of the game, with an impact nearly three times as big as any other play.

Neither quarterback had an impressive performance in this game, as both had flat EPA without making many negative mistakes. Both offenses were simply stuck in the mud for long stretches, couldn’t sustain drives (combined 6-of-23 on third and fourth downs) and lacked explosive plays (one play over 25 yards gained).

Patrick Mahomes continues to lack a meaningful downfield weapon, registering a 5.6-yard aDOT and only completing one pass of more than 20 air yards. Mahomes has pivoted to spreading the ball around, with eight Chiefs receivers having two or more catches, but none with more than three.

ATL vs MIN

No team has mastered win or losing when they’re not supposed to like the Vikings. Fresh off of a soul-crushing injury to Kirk Cousins, the Vikings lose third-string-to-starter Jaren Hall to a concussion on their second drive, but comeback multiple times to win with the recently acquired Josh Dobbs throwing and scrambling for a number of big first downs.

Neither team was very successful offensively, but both teams had a number of highly valuable plays (combined 13 of +2-plus EPA) dropping back to pass. Neither the Falcons or Vikings ran the ball effectively on designed runs, with non-quarterback yard per carry of 3.6 and 2.9, respectively.

Josh Dobbs is the strange backup quarterback who brings a propensity for mistakes along with higher-end upside plays, but things can go very when the latter is missing. In this game, he brought both, losing 13 expected points to three sacks and two lost fumbles, yet finishing with +5.6 EPA in total. Dobbs added a missive +7.8 EPA on five scrambles, including 3rd & 10 and 4th & 7 conversions, plus an 18-yard touchdown. The fourth down conversion was the most impactful play of the game from a win probability perspective, raising the Vikings chance of victory to 58% from 26%.

Taylor Heinicke shouldn’t take the full blame with the Falcons defensive allowing the Vikings to come back multiple times, but he didn’t have a good game. He averaged -0.04 EPA per play, was inaccurate at -7.1% CPOE, and threw a unnecessary, bad interception on 1st & 10 trying to squeeze the ball into a non-existent window. That came one play after a Bijan Robinson fumble, and those two plays swung value dramatically (combined -10.3 EPA) and win probability (-22.3%)

BAL vs SEA