Week 5 TNF Commanders-Bears: Advanced Review

DJ Moore dominates and Justin Fields has his second strong game in a row

DJ Moore had the game of his career against a vulnerable Commanders defense

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

WAS vs CHI

The adjusted scores have this game much closer than the result, and I think the truth lies in-between the two. The fact that the success rates are fairly similar (Commanders offense even higher) is driving the narrowing, with the higher variance elements like turnover and late-down advantage skewing heavily in the Bears’ favor. The numbers can’t see exactly how wide open and easy it was for the Bears to complete the higher-leverage third down conversions in this game, which are down-weighted in the model.