Week 5 Thursday Night Rams-49ers: Advanced Review
The Los Angeles Rams fumbled away a game they should have won, while Mac Jones moves his starting record to 3-0
The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
LA (-8.5) vs SF
The San Francisco 49ers got the big win in overtime, but the Los Angeles Rams were clearly the better team. Now, the Rams performance wasn’t as strong as the betting markets assumed with an 8.5-point spread to their favor, but the adjusted scores show them as being five points better.
The final score overall was quite muted versus what you would have expected based on the offensive fundamentals of both teams. Huge fumbles killed two promising Rams drives (total -11.7 EPA), they missed a 53-yard field goal (-3.4 EPA) and ended the game on a failed 4th & 1 conversion attempt in overtime (-3.4 EPA). Despite those losses, the Rams offense still hit the 67th percentile in EPA efficiency, but it could have been so much stronger. The Rams 57.4% offensive success rate was the fourth highest for any offensive so far this season.
The 49ers offense was also good, but mostly due to success dropping back to pass. They averaged 2.2 yards and lost -0.11 per designed run, despite not losing a fumble. The Rams value losses running the ball were all about the fumbles, as they averaged 4.9 yards per rush on 16 attempts.
Overall, the Rams averaged 7.1 yards per pay to the 49ers at only 4.9, but the 49ers extended drives by converting 10 of the 18 times they went to third down (3-for-3 on fourth), versus the Rams converting 6 of 13 times (2-for-3 on fourth). Extending those drives allowed the 49ers to run nearly 20 more plays (83 to 64) and limit the Rams overall yards gained advantage to only 45 yards (378 to 333), despite the massive advantage the Rams had in per play efficiency.
Both quarterbacks posted strong value efficiencies by EPA, though done in very different ways. Matthew Stafford pushed the ball down the field (11.2-yard aDOT) and generated significantly more air-yards EPA, whereas Mac Jones was more reliant on underneath passing (5.9-yard aDOT) and limiting negatives (zero turnovers, one sack).
Jones is now 3-0 as the primary quarterback for the 49ers this season, though his efficiency greatly trails what Brock Purdy has done in limited action. That said, Purdy is only 1-1 as a starter, with the superficial stats of as many interceptions as touchdown passes (2 each). I’m sure this - plus the Jones-49ers draft intrigue from 2020 - will spark some “fun” discourse over the week. But Purdy is still, clearly, the better option when healthy.
The 49ers now stand atop the NFC West at 4-1, but only have a +8 point differential on the season, reflecting the weakness of the team versus results.
