Week 5 NFL Power Rankings

The Bills have separated from the pack, with lots of movement following a week of dominating results

The Rams are legit? That’s what the numbers aren’t saying

One of the most difficult balancing acts in the early season is weighing the power rankings I had leading into Week 1 with the evidence we’ve gathered so far this season. I know successful bettors who basically eliminate all priors (i.e. pre-season ratings) by Week 5, and others who decay them much more slowly over the season.

You notice that some of the rankings shifts and movements in power rating don’t correspond exactly with intuition based solely on Week 4 results. The numbers still use 2022 data, and prior weeks are having their effect sizes decayed, which can cause slight adjustments that look big. When lots of teams are bunched up in the middle of the NFL, even a marginal change in power rating can move a team 3-6 spots.

* The detailed information for power rankings are on the paid subscriber Google sheet (along with other site metrics). You can find previous Power Rankings write-ups on the landing page.

WHAT WE’VE LEARNED IN 2023

First let’s look at the team offensive and defensive efficiencies so far in 2023, using my adjusted-score methodology to measure performance, and factoring in strength of schedule, which is mostly based on 2022 performances.

The top-2 teams so far in 2023 according to my numbers faced each other last Sunday, and the Bills’ strong victory over the Dolphins moved them into a virtual tie. The next tier has two names you’d expect (49ers and Cowboys), with two you likely wouldn’t (Rams and Browns). The Rams are really a half-tier below the others, but have been the biggest success story of the season. You’ll see how rapidly they’re moving up my power rankings below, which have lowered their reliance on pre-season rankings (aka priors) while the Rams put up another victory that looked better than an overtime result.