Week 5 MNF Raiders-Packers: Advanced Review

The Raiders win an ugly game that exposed Jordan Love's flaws to a national audience

Jakobi Meyers, not Davante Adams, was Jimmy Garoppolo’s main target

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LV vs GB

The Raiders pull of an ugly victory, though the adjusted scores saw the offenses as less impotent than the results. Both teams were plagued by negatives. Seven of the top-10 most impactful plays in the game by EPA were negative, including three Jordan Love interceptions (combined -13.6 EPA) and two INTs plus three sacks taken for Jimmy Garoppolo (-12.5).