The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.
All 2026-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.
Find previous advanced reviews here
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** Adjusted Scores table:
“Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages
“Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual
“H & A” - Home or away team
Jaguars (-7.5, 76%) vs Eagles in London
This game had everything to discuss if you’re into coaching decisions, officiating narratives, bad offenses and general messiness. The Philadelphia Eagles‘ would-be “game-winning field goal” was their first score in the second half since Week 2. Yet somehow the Jags took the final kickoff 53 yards to get in position for the true game-winning field goal.
Presuming that Jake Elliott can get the ball into the end zone, the correct call in theory (and obviously in practice) was to force the Jags with no timeout to run plays from their own 35 yard-line with only eight seconds. Honestly, I can also see the argument of wanting to avoid the chance for a long pass out-of-bounds to set up a field goal. But the Eagles kicked it short, and the rest is history.
While the adjusted scores saw this as a game the Jaguars should have won, fans of both teams can probably think of reasons why their team deserved to win and played better than the final score. Jalen Carter forced multiple Trevor Lawrence fumbles that the Eagles couldn’t recover, Jalen Hurts missed a wide open Dontayvion Wicks on 3rd & 13 for what would have been a walk-in 59-yard touchdown, and the Jags committing roughly a million penalties (actually 13 for 100 yards).
But the looniest storyline was the Jags’ long-snapper situation. This led to decisions that turned multiple 1st & Goal opportunities into zero points, missing a late extra point that opened the door for the Eagles, but getting the drama of the good snap they needed on their game-winning try.
Part of the reason it was a bit jarring for me to see the Philadelphia Eagles as such heavy underdogs to the Jacksonville Jaguars this week was that I figured the Eagles offense couldn’t get worse. I was wrong. They posted a 32% success rate and 25th percentile efficiency, while the Jags weren’t a whole lot better at 34% and 45th percentile. The Jags played to stop the run and forced the Eagles to beat tight coverage, and it worked almost perfectly. The Eagles only averaged 3.9 yards per play, while the Jags were at a respectable 6.0, crushed by offensive penalty losses, with 15 expected points lost in total.
