Week 5 London & Early Window: Advanced Reviews

All the advanced stats, visualizations & commentary for Browns-Vikings, Ravens-Texans, Panthers-Dolphins, Colts-Raiders, Saints-Giants, Jets-Cowboys & Eagles-Broncos

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LONDON: CLE vs MIN (-3.5)

The Cleveland Browns were competitive until the very end, though the adjusted scores saw the Minnesota Vikings as deserving a bigger margin of victory. The Vikings offensive success rate was more than 10% higher than the Browns (48% to 37%), but the Browns had a +8.3 EPA turnover advantage (two Vikings fumbles) and were more fortunate in special teams and penalties (+3.7 EPA).

The Browns offense under new starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel painted a contrast to that of Joe Flacco: poor success rates but turnover avoidant. The Browns posted slightly negative EPA in both phases of offense, while the Vikings were efficient, outside of two fumble losses. The Vikings dropback passing offense was humming, but they had trouble sustaining drives, going 3-for-9 on third downs.

Another factor keeping the game closer than it should have been was the Browns success on fourth down, converting their three attempts of 4th & 1 (total +5.1 EPA).

A solid game for Carson Wentz, who is now 2-1 as a starter, with the only loss by just three points to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Among 33 quarterbacks with at least 80 dropbacks this season, Wentz ranks a respectable 12th in EPA per play (+0.18) and has a positive completion percentage over expectation (+2.3%). While he didn’t get a lot of reps, J.J. McCarthy was dead last in EPA efficiency before his injury (-0.29 EPA per play).

Dillon Gabriel probably did enough to get another look in Pittsburgh next week against the Steelers.

BAL vs HOU (-2.5)