Week 5 Late Window: Advanced Reviews

The Bengals offense is back? Jalen Hurts is back? Mahomes back to MVP favorite?

Ja’Marr Chase and the Bengals offense leap back into form

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

LA vs PHI

The Eagles had a relatively easy time dispatching with the Rams “on the road” in LA. The score differential was kept close with an Eagles interception on 1st & 10 from the Rams 20 yard-line, and the fact that Eagles offense was effective, but unspectacular. The Eagles had 80th percentile offensive efficiency by EPA per play, but only averaged 5.8 yards per play, grinding the ball down the field with 78 plays on only eight total possessions.