Week 6 Bayesian Quarterback Rankings

Joe Burrow and Jared Goff on the rise, the opposite for Russell Wilson and Jimmy Garoppolo

Jared Goff is on the cusp of making the top-12 in the rankings

For those of you looking for the Adjusted Quarterback Efficiency (AQE) numbers, it might be a week (or two) before I have the data to produce them. I’m figuring it all out now and appreciate the patience. I am producing a slimmed down version that I’m calling Luck-Adjusted Efficiency.

You can find all the previous weeks’ versions of the Bayesian Quarterback Rankings here.

COMPARING GRADES AND EFFICIENCY

PFF grades aren’t part of the analysis, but I find it helpful to make not of how they align with EPA per play, as many contextual elements of quarterback play (drops, interception-worthy throws, easier throws that become big gains, etc) are part of the grading methodology, but aren’t accounted for in EPA. At the same time, I think EPA does a vastly superior job of weighing what is and isn’t important in points-based results.

There are some monstrous disconnects with grading and efficiency through five weeks of this season. First, we have Brock Purdy essentially lapping the field in EPA per play, but ninth in PFF offensive grade. What PFF classifies as “big-time throws” and “turnover-worthy plays” have outsized influence on their grading, and Purdy is in the average range for both.

On the other side of the coin, Lamar Jackson and Trevor Lawrence are second and fifth in PFF offensive grade, but 20th and 16th, respectively, in EPA per play. For me, the truth lies somewhere in-between.

Lower-rated quarterbacks with disconnects include Anthony Richardson being favored by EPA per play (maybe rushing isn’t fully accounted for in grading?), and Daniel Jones favored by grading.

WEEK 6 PROJECTED EFFICIENCY

These results are the ranking for the go-forward projections of quarterback efficiency this season. I also included the EPA per play rankings for each quarterback over the last six seasons (minimum 250 dropbacks in previous years, 80 in 2023) so you can see the evidence going into the projections.

Older data is decayed over time, so the 2023 EPA per play data matters more than those from pre-2020. That said, older data can’t be fully discounted, or else you miss bounce-back performers of great quarterback returning to form, like Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021.

I’ve substituted Gardner Minshew for Anthony Richardson as the starter for the Colts, but haven’t made other changes for questionables like Deshaun Watson (hint: the ranking for Dorian Thompson-Robinson would not be good).