Week 4 TNF Lions-Packers: Advanced Review

An easy win for the Lions in Greem Bay, with Jordan Love looking more like the quarterback of his underlying metrics

The rookie record-breaking Sam LaPorta didn’t stop impressing in Week 4

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2023 & 2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

DET vs GB

A convincing win on the road for the Lions, with an adjusted-score point differential more narrow than the actual, but still significant. The underlying team strengths should assume that week-in and week-out the Packers would underperform the Lions by a combined 13.3 expected points in turnovers and late-down conversions, which even included a 4th & 9 success for the Packers (+3.7 EPA, most positive play of the game).