Week 4 Thursday Night Cardinals-Seahawks: Advanced Review

A late comeback for the Cardinals fails, with the clearly better Seahawks taking home the W

The adjusted scores quantify team play quality, with emphasis on stable metrics (success rate) and downplaying higher variance events (turnovers, special team, penalties, fumble luck, etc). Adjusted expected points added (EPA), in conjunction with opportunity-based metrics like total plays and drives, projects adjusted points. Adjusted scores have been tested against actual scores and offer slightly better predictive ability, though their primary benefit is explanatory.

All 2025-2022 and historical Adjusted Scores and other site metrics are available in a downloadable format to paid subscribers via Google Sheet.

Find previous advanced reviews here

** Adjusted Scores table:

• “Pass” - Pass rate over expectation (based on context of each play and historical averages

• “Success” - Success rate on offense, a key metric in adjusted score vs actual

• “H & A” - Home or away team

ARI vs SEA(-1.5)

This one ended up much closer than the advanced metrics indicated, with the core offensive success rates for the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks separated by over 5% (37.7% to 43.3%) and the Seahawks turnover and late-down conversion advantages pushing their EPA efficiency into the 70th percentile, while the Cardinals were stuck at the 33rd.

The conclusion of the Seahawks being the significantly better team shouldn’t come as a shock to those who watched the game unfold, as the Seahawks blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter, before scoring the final field goal with only 28 seconds to operate on their final possession. A 53-yard missed field goal by Jason Myers between Cardinals touchdowns is what opened the door (-9% win probability, -3.3 EPA), though Myers redeemed himself somewhat on the final kick.

To briefly touch on some “nerd shit”: Yes, Jonathan Gannon should have gone for two on their second-to-last touchdown to put them in position to win or potentially go for two on the next score. He didn’t, and that slight advantage was tossed away.

By the traditional metrics, the game doesn’t look any better for the Cardinals offense, averaging 4.0 yards per play (6.0 for the Seahawks), outgained in total by 131 yards (253 to 384) and committing two turnovers to the Seahawks one. One of the Cardinals turnovers led directly to Seahawks giving the ball immediately back on runback fumble, the rare positive EPA interception.

The differences in efficiency were most pronounced on dropbacks, with the Seahawks hitting the 92nd percentile to the Cardinals 29th, averaging 7.9 net yards per attempt to only 3.5. However, that efficiency advantage wasn’t amplified with the Seahawks playing from ahead and running the ball even more than you’d project based on game context (-10.1% pass rate versus expectation).

Sam Darnold has been highly efficient this season, ranking in the top-5 for both adjusted and unadjusted efficiency. But he hasn’t been given the reins to be the focal point of the offense, with the Seahawks offense posting the lowest dropback rate in the NFL (48.3%), and the highest run rate over expectation (+8.4%). So far, it’s worked out brilliantly, as they sit at 3-1 with a point differential near the top of the NFL. The question will be if Darnold can maintain strong efficiency and limit big mistakes (his previous Achilles heel) if he’s forced to drop back at an elevated rate throughout games.

This was another mediocre performance for Kyler Murray, saved somewhat by a couple late touchdown drives and the fortunate circumstances limiting EPA loss on his first interception. Even still, Murray lost 12.2 expected points to turnovers and sacks (6 for 36 yards lost), and generated most of his passing value via receiver yards-after-catch. Murray hasn’t been nearly as much of a rushing success the last couple years as earlier in his career, this week scrambling five times for -0.2 EPA in total, and having one designed run for -0.7 EPA.